The World Bank gave a forecast for Ukraine's economic development

Submitted by bashun on Thu, 04/12/2018 - 13:03

Inflation in Ukraine in 2018 may again exceed the expectations of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) against the background of the expected increase in labor costs. This was reported by the economist of the World Bank (WB) representative office in Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova Anastasiia Holovach, Interfax-Ukraine reported.

According to Anastasiia Holovach, inflation in Ukraine this year may reach 10%. In addition, she said that the forecast for GDP growth for 2019-2020 is kept at 4%. Inflation in the current year is projected at 9.9% (previously projected at 7%), in 2019 - 7.3% (previous forecast - 6.5%) and in 2020 - 6.5% (previous forecast - 6%).

"According to our estimates, labor costs will make up more than 18% of GDP this year, despite the fact that salaries for teachers, doctors and civil servants have reached pre-crisis levels." These fiscal risks are very high, which is why we expect inflation in the level to 10% this year," she said.

Nominal GDP this year is projected at the level of 3428 billion UAH, in 2019 - 3854 billion UAH, and in 2020 - 4314 billion UAH. The growth of imports is projected at the level: in 2018 - 14%, in 2019 - 7.2%, in 2020 - 5.8%. The growth of exports this year is expected at 8%, in 2019 - 6.4%, in 2020 - 5.9%.

It is also reported that the World Bank expects a deficit of the state budget in 2018 at 2.5% of GDP, in 2019 - 2.7% of GDP and in 2020 - 2.4% of GDP. At the same time, state debt is expected at 75.1% of GDP this year, in 2019 - 73.5% of GDP and in 2020 - 68.4% of GDP.

The World Bank has kept the forecast for growth of Ukraine's gross domestic product in 2018 at 3.5%. This is written by with reference to the leading economist of the WB office in Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova Faruk Khan.

He added that if Ukraine does not implement the necessary reforms, in 2018-2019, GDP growth may fall by 2 percentage points. Also, the World Bank predicts economic growth in Ukraine in 2020 at 4%.


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