According to FAO estimates, the total number of pigs at the beginning of next year will be the lowest in the modern history of Ukraine - at the level of 6.1 million.
This was reported by Andrii Pankratov, agricultural market analyst and national consultant of FAO, on his Facebook page.
"We have repeatedly heard that the number of pigs in the country in early 2017 was the lowest in almost 10 years, but I wonder how things are now? They are worsened. That is, the number of livestock continued to decline, " writes Andrii Pankratov.
So, since the beginning of the year the number of livestock has slightly increased, but the backlog from last year's indicators as of October 1 has already reached 9.3% (6 million 762 thousand heads against 7 million 454 thousand heads), whereas on January 1 the difference was 5, 8%.
The largest decrease occurred in the category of agricultural enterprises. As of October 1, it contained 10.1% less pigs than last year (3.427 million goals against 3.814 million), although at the beginning of the year the backlog was only 3.7%. Factors of this reduction are many - this is the ASF, and low profitability last year, the consequences of which began to manifest itself in full, and quite high prices for live animals, which encouraged the implementation, and the repair of capacity and the update of livestock at several large enterprises.
In the households, the reduction in the number of pigs occurs without acceleration and continues the trend of the last seven years. As of October 1, the difference with the previous year was 8.4% (3.334 million goals against 3.639 million head), and as of January 1 it was not much lower - 8.1%.
The share of livestock in agricultural enterprises on October 1 was 50.7%, which is already slightly less than last year (51.2%), but still above half.
"So what gives us an understanding of this picture? First, this is the fact that the tendency to reduce the number of pigs in the households of the population continues and it almost does not react to temporary market factors, that is, evolutionary. The professional pig sector, on the contrary, is quite sensitive to changes in profitability and business riskiness and shows a fairly logical and predictable reaction. While this reaction is a bit late, after all, for example, in the EU and the peak of prices occurred earlier and the corresponding increase in production occurred more quickly, but there are signs of a stable market in our country, " says the expert.
According to him, despite all the risks associated with the ASF, we can expect that the professional pig sector will show the growth of the livestock (more precisely, it will reduce the gap from the previous year, given the seasonal tendency to decline at this time) in the coming months, as the profitability of the business is significantly has improved and is now the highest in the past three years. At the same time, to cover this decline in the number of livestock in the households is still unrealistic and the total number of pigs at the beginning of next year is expected to be the lowest in the completely modern history of Ukraine.